Three year housing recovery
The U.S. Census Bureau says one in every nine homes in the United States is
sitting vacant, and economists predict that it won't change nationwide for at
least three years. The number of housing units in the United States increased
by 8.65 million from 2002 to 2007, but during that period the number of U.S.
households rose by only 6.7 million. Subtract a half-million homes that will be
torn down or lost to fire, and that leaves 1.3 million units.
Arthur C. Nelson, director of the University of Utah's Metropolitan Research
Center identifies three factors that ensure a slow recovery: the recession and
a slowdown in immigration, the relatively small Gen X numbers (most of who are
within the age range when people tend to have the most children), and the number
of new homes being built--about 700,000 this year. Nelson predicts that
hard-hit housing markets in the West and South will start to bounce back later
this year, but that the Northeast and Midwest will have the slowest comeback,
possibly extending beyond 2012.
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